Summary Bullets:
• Evolutionary predictions are relatively easy; revolutionary predictions for cataclysmic, market-changing events are nearly impossible to predict.
• Skepticism, value-focus, and clear identification of what is evolutionary, even when it’s dressed up as revolutionary, is key to effective technology decision-making.
Historically, humanity’s ability to see the end shape of things is spectacularly bad. Smart, monied people such as Thomas Watson, the storied CEO of IBM, in 1943 said there would be a world market for maybe five computers. The inventor of Ethernet, Robert Metcalfe, predicted that the internet itself would “supernova” and collapse in 1996. Those are egregious examples of being spectacularly wrong, but it makes sense to look at the perspective of those predictions in the light of the conditions and observations they could make at the time.
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